Reports And AnalysisIraqIranSaudi ArabiaEuropean Report
2023-07-26 14:02Font
Shafaq News / The European Council on Foreign Relations Institute on Wednesday considered regional calm, especially after Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed as a “golden opportunity” for Iraq, urging European countries to encourage Iraqi rapprochement with the Gulf countries to help him face its internal challenges.
The European report, translated by Shafaq News, pointed out that “Iraq is working to strengthen its relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries after improving relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia,” recalling that “Iraq has been in the crosshairs of decades of tensions between neighbors Iran and Saudi Arabia, but after relations between Tehran and Riyadh improved, which Baghdad has facilitated, Iraq has become a major beneficiary of regional calm.”
“Regional players are now focusing more on economic prosperity than gaining the upper hand geopolitically, a situation that would bring direct and desired benefits to Iraq,” the report continued, adding that “in light of this, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is working to strengthen relations with the GCC countries.”
“European countries must support these developments, after years of trying to stabilize Iraq after the 2003 invasion,” the report said.
The report stated that “the Gulf countries have shown hostility to Iraq for years, viewing Shiite politicians, including heads of government, as Iranian proxies, adding that “what frustrated Iraqi politicians is that many countries, including the Gulf countries, were determining their foreign policy towards Iraq as an extension of their Iranian file.”
In this context, the report pointed out that “when the Sudanese took power in October 2022, the capitals of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries considered him strongly allied with former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, and therefore with Iran.”
But according to the report, “the level of Iranian control over Iraqi political structures is complex, and it varies according to the institution, issue and geographical location, but the Iraqis learned in the difficult way that this supposed association with Iran affects the foreign policy of the Gulf countries towards Baghdad, and Iraqi politicians have long realized that Iraq’s relations with the Arab world will not improve unless its neighbors ease tensions with Iran.”
“This represents the reason why Baghdad took the opportunity to turn these ties into an asset, and in this context brokered secret talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the past years, which culminated in a diplomatic breakthrough announced in China earlier this year,” the report continued.
The report noted that “the heads of Iraqi government after 2003, often tried to strengthen relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, in an effort to benefit from the economic wealth in the region in a way that leads to the stability of the country.”
He added that “some analysts support the idea that the GCC countries should strengthen relations with Baghdad, with the aim of compensating for Iranian influence, but any breakthrough was achieved in this context only during the era of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, where he restored diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia in 2015, noting that “Iraq ended in 2022, paying compensation to Kuwait’s invasion in 1990.”
“The Sudanese, given its supposed relationship with Iran, may be surprising that he presses for closer ties with the Gulf,” the report said.
But the report noted that “it is clear that Iraq benefits from not using it as a battleground for proxy war between countries in the region.”
He added that “Accordingly, Al-Sudani participated in the Arab Summit in Saudi Arabia in 2023, a task usually carried out by the President of the Republic,” noting that “the Sudanese also pledged to host the Arab summit in Baghdad in 2025, which sends a clear message of commitment towards the wider Arab world.”
“The GCC countries seem to have finally acknowledged that despite the many challenges faced by Iraq’s political system, it will not go anywhere anytime soon,” the report continued, adding that “after the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Riyadh is no longer opposed to increasing the pace of its engagement with the Shiite-dominated government in Iraq.”
According to the report, the transition of power from generation to generation in Saudi Arabia led leaders to replace their entrenched sectarian beliefs with new political ideas and priorities, noting that “Saudi leaders are interested in achieving the economic well-being of their citizens in a transformed and less oil-dependent world.”
He added that “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to focus on internal reform, which may complicate regional instability in countries such as Iraq and Yemen, especially given the belief that the United States will no longer guarantee the security of Saudi Arabia, as Riyadh continues to work with Russia.”
“One of the critical reasons for Baghdad’s continued engagement with Saudi Arabia is Iraq’s need for Arab investments, including helping to eliminate dependence on Iran and Turkey,” the report said, adding that “Iraq will benefit from diversifying its trading partners, especially in the energy sector.”
After the report referred to “Iraq’s growing economic relations with Turkey, and with Iran from which gas is bought in order to produce electricity, and Iran’s inability to reach any frozen funds in Iraqi banks due to US sanctions, he stated that “Baghdad signed a deal with Total Energy worth 27 billion in order to increase oil production and exploit gas that is burned randomly, thus reducing Iraq’s dependence on Iranian gas, a deal that will enhance the French company’s benefit from the Iraqi market, in addition to Qatar Energy, which has a 25% stake in the deal.”
The report pointed to “the increase in Saudi Arabia and UAE investments (recently $7 billion) in Iraq, and that GCC relations with Iraqi politicians are developing,” adding that “for the Iraqi government, this development can help meet urgent and often destabilizing economic needs, such as providing adequate job opportunities and government services to its young population.”
“This new launch provides opportunities for Europeans who must welcome them as an important way to help stabilize Iraq,” the report concluded.
“European countries must now encourage and support the GCC countries and Iraq to expand their engagement together in other key areas including security and sby-line cooperation,” he added.
“Instead of seeing this as a way to reduce Tehran’s influence, Europe should welcome opportunities to draw Iran into regional frameworks for cooperation to help significantly promote regional de-escalation and address urgent common challenges such as those posed by climate change,” the report continued.
“Iraq will need to continue to balance its relations with its neighbors carefully, even as Iran and Saudi Arabia converge warmly,” the European report concluded.
But the report said “this will not always be an easy task,” adding that “the parties will continue to pressure Baghdad in ways that pose risks.”
He also noted that “the presence of Iran-allied paramilitary groups, which often follow a more hawkish approach than Tehran, in addition to the risk of wider regional escalation associated with US and Israeli tensions with Iran, pose threats to the sustainability of this path.”
“Ultimately, Iraq’s most regionally connected will be in a better position to meet its own internal challenges and mitigate the impact of these external pressures,” he concluded, adding that “Europeans must do what they can to promote this opportunity.”
Search 4 Dinar 