Iraq.. What does Al-Sadr’s victory in the elections mean for Al-Kazemi?

Free / Special – WashingtonDecember 04, 2021Share on FacebookShare on TwitterShare on WhatsApp

Al-Kazemi took over as prime minister in Iraq in May 2020

Analysts believe that the victory of the Sadrist movement, led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, in the legislative elections in Iraq, has boosted the chances of the current prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, in maintaining his position for another four years, during which we may witness a greater decline in Iranian influence in the country.

The Sadrist bloc topped the results of the elections that took place on the tenth of last October, obtaining 73 seats out of the 329 total seats in the House of Representatives.

The “Al-Fateh Alliance”, the main representative of the popular crowd factions in Parliament, after its objection to the preliminary results, claiming fraud, won 17 seats after it held 48 seats in the outgoing parliament.

The political blocs representing the Popular Mobilization Forces, an alliance of Shiite factions loyal to Iran and affiliated with the armed forces, reject the initial results that showed a decline in the number of its seats.

Al-Sadr tirelessly repeats that his current will choose the prime minister, and calls for the formation of a “majority” government represented by the parties that received the highest number of votes, which is rejected by the forces loyal to Tehran and insists on forming a “consensual government” and that the next prime minister be “consensual, and the ministers according to merit. Electoral.

According to an analysis published by the American Heritage Foundation, Al-Sadr’s call to form a “political majority” government in Parliament makes him an important “player” that would contribute to Al-Kazemi, “a friend of the United States”, maintaining his position as prime minister.

The analysis, written by Nicole Robinson, a researcher at the Institute’s Allison Center for Foreign Policy, says that al-Sadr is well known to American decision makers, especially as he led militias against American forces in the early days of the Iraq war.

However, Allison believes that “Al-Sadr has since become more aligned with American goals in Iraq, and is likely to act as a kingmaker by taking advantage of his electoral majority to nominate Al-Kazemi.”

“Al-Kazemi’s fortunes”

Allison summarizes the US goals in Iraq with only two points, namely, countering Iranian influence and “fighting extremist Islamists”, in reference to ISIS.

And the Iraqi political analyst, Ghaleb Al-Daami, believes that “Al-Kazemi’s fortunes are still the strongest, but the negotiations or the results of the agreements between the political forces remain the ones who decide this.”

Al-Dami told Al-Hurra that “the coordinating framework forces do not want a candidate to head the government from within the Sadrist circle, and therefore this may force them to accept any other candidate supported by al-Sadr.”

Al-Daami indicates that “the influential parties within the coordination framework reject Al-Kazemi’s candidacy, but everyone knows that they are influenced by external forces that can ask them to remain silent about Al-Kazemi’s candidacy,” referring to the association of these forces with Iran.

The professor of international relations, Haitham Al-Hiti, agrees that “Al-Kazemi’s chances are very great,” but he does not rule out the occurrence of “last-minute surprises.”

Al-Hiti told Al-Hurra that “Al-Kazemi will be the biggest opportunity for al-Sadr to silence the factions’ objections to the nomination of anyone from within the movement.”

Al-Hiti adds to the “Al-Hurra” website that “Al-Kazemi dealt pragmatically with the assassination attempt that targeted him, and did not announce the party that carried it out,” noting that this would certainly help mitigate objections to his candidacy.

Al-Hiti believes that “the faction’s acceptance of Al-Kazemi will be better for them than accepting a Sadrist person, who may be harsher than Al-Kazemi in dealing with them.”

In a country where Tehran and Washington are vying for influence, regional and international interventions could have the “final say” in choosing the next prime minister.

Last June, Reuters quoted Western diplomats as saying in private, informal interviews that they would rather deal with a government dominated by al-Sadr than with a government dominated by his Iranian-backed Shiite opponents. 

Doug Suleiman, the former US ambassador to Iraq and head of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told the agency, “We found that Al-Sadr is one of the main brakes on Iranian expansion and the sectarian Shiite political influence in Iraq after the 2018 elections.”

‘The perfect alternative’

Al-Hiti points out that “the West, the United States, the Gulf and most other Arab countries all prefer Al-Kadhimi… Iran also sees it as an appropriate option because it has not taken any actual action to weaken their role on the ground so far.”

Al-Hiti continues, “Al-Kazemi will not be the ideal alternative for change in Iraq. He has succeeded in the media in portraying himself as an alternative and an effective solution to confronting Iranian influence, but he is not.”

He shows that Al-Kazemi is “a good person with good intentions and good behavior, but he is not a leader and can take decisive decisions.”

On the other hand, Al-Daami believes that “it is not easy to find a personality with Al-Kazemi’s specifications in light of the current data and indicators that say that he enjoys unparalleled local, Arab and Western acceptance, and no Iranian rejection, and Turkish support as well.”

A series of events witnessed in Iraq during Al-Kazemi’s rule, which began in May 2020, showed the immunity of armed groups, mainly allied with Iran, from accountability and punishment, according to Reuters.

After the United States in the 2003 war toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, Shiite parties allied with Iran took control of state institutions and their successive governments.

And in late 2019, huge groups of Iraqis participated in massive protests calling for the removal of this ruling class. Hundreds of protesters were killed when security forces and gunmen opened fire on the demonstrators. The government at that time was forced to resign.

Since then, interim Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi has promised to hold those responsible for killing protesters accountable and to reform election laws, which would weaken the grip of armed groups.

However, after nearly two years, the trials for the killing of demonstrators did not achieve the desired results. The old elite also appears to be consolidating its power, while activists complain that political freedoms are further eroded.

The United Nations says that at least 32 anti-regime activists have died in targeted killings by unidentified armed groups since October 2019. Iraqi officials blame groups allied with Iran behind the scenes, although these groups deny any role.

On the other hand, Reuters says that Al-Kazemi has sought to balance Iraq’s relations with both Tehran and Washington, although he is widely seen as having friendly relations with the United States.

She adds that Al-Kazemi’s first trip abroad was to Iran, but he visited the White House twice and visited both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, where his balanced moves reflect efforts to improve Iraqi relations with the Gulf states that compete with Iran for influence across the Middle East.

Al-Kazemi also sought to calm the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In August, he hosted a meeting in Baghdad that included officials from both sides.

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The Sadrist movement insists on the majority government and hopes for an upcoming agreement

political| 07:10 – 04/12/2021

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Special – Mawazine News
, the former deputy of the Sadrist movement, Ali Saadoun, confirmed, on Saturday, that the movement will not give up on forming a government of the political majority.
Saadoun said in an interview with “Mawazine News” that “Muqtada al-Sadr’s visit to the coordination framework and the meeting with his leaders aimed at resolving the political impasse in the country, and that it is a step towards the right direction that restores the Shiite house to come out with an agreement and a unified vision. And
he indicated that “so far there is no intention.” To relinquish the government of the political majority and change their opinion and that there is an insistence on it, with an understanding on a number of matters, including not compromising Iraq’s sovereignty and eliminating corruption and the corrupt.”
He pointed out that “the visit is an important step that contributes to the progress of the political situation in the country, and we hope with the agreement and understanding of all political parties and make the interest of Iraq is the basis and the main principle from which the next government is based. finished 29/h

https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=177371

Al-Kazemi and Tueller stress Iraq’s growing role in promoting regional security and stability

  •  Time: 12/04/2021 18:23:04 
  •  Reading: 208 times 
Al-Kazemi and Tueller stress Iraq's growing role in promoting regional security and stability

{Political: Al-Furat News} Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi emphasized to the US ambassador to Iraq Matthew Tueller, on Saturday, Iraq’s growing role in enhancing regional security and stability. 

And his office stated in a statement that {Euphrates News} received a copy of it, that “Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi received the US ambassador to Iraq, Matthew Tueller and his accompanying delegation, and the meeting witnessed a discussion of ways to enhance areas of cooperation and partnership between the two countries, and discuss the latest developments.” The region is witnessing security developments, stressing Iraq’s growing role in enhancing regional security and stability.

The meeting also discussed the progress made in ending the combat role of the coalition forces in Iraq in accordance with the principles of strategic dialogue, and the transition to the role of advice, assistance and empowerment.

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Joint Operations announces agreement to strengthen intelligence work with the region to combat terrorist operations

  •  Time: 12/04/2021 16:28:22 
  •  Reading: 403 times 
Joint Operations announces agreement to strengthen intelligence work with the region to combat terrorist operations

{Umniah: Al Furat News} The Joint Operations Command announced, on Saturday, an agreement to strengthen intelligence work with the Kurdistan region to combat terrorist operations. 

The useful summary.. In important news, you can find it on Al-Furat News Channel on Telegram.. To subscribe, click here

The Security Media Cell stated in a statement that {Euphrates News} received a copy of it, “The First Lieutenant-General Abdul Amir Al-Shammari, Deputy Commander of the Joint Operations, received today, in the presence of the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army for Operations, the Commander of the Ground Forces, the Director of Military Intelligence and the Operations Commanders in Diyala and Kirkuk, a high-level security delegation headed by Lieutenant-General Jabbar Yawar, Secretary-General of the Ministry of Peshmerga in the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq and leaders of the first, second and third axes and the wonderful in the Peshmerga forces, and the presence of the commander of the coalition forces in Iraq.
She added, “During the meeting, they discussed unifying security and military efforts to confront ISIS terrorist attacks and strengthening the strategy of security and military cooperation and understanding in the areas of security coordination between the forces of the center and the region.”
And that in understandings overwhelmed by the joint care to secure the national territory in all provinces of the country actively and one national was agreed to enhance intelligence work and to increase cooperation in this framework between the center forces and the region to combat terrorist activities and prevent. ”
She cell” was also discussed during the meeting friendly forces cooperation in the framework of logistical support and unify the fight Daesh the efforts of the terrorist and the agreement on the continuation of bilateral meetings between security and military leaderships common to develop a clear vision to counter terrorism. ”
It is worth mentioning, the commander of the armed forces confirmed after an attack Daesh terrorist last on the importance of close ranks and coordinate the positions of addressing Daesh through Strengthening the system of joint security and military cooperation.

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The leader of Al-Fateh launches a stinging attack on the Electoral Commission: The fraud was not a coincidence

politicsbreakingHadi Al-AmriAl AmriThe election 2021-12-04 07:45A-AA+

Shafaq News/ On Saturday, the leader of the Al-Fateh Alliance Hadi Al-Amiri launched a stinging attack on the Independent High Electoral Commission, and while he indicated that the commission was not prepared to conduct the polls, he stressed that the fraud in the elections was not a coincidence.

Al-Amiri said during a press conference attended by Shafak News Agency, “We had hoped that the elections would be held in full transparency away from fraud, and we believed that early elections would be one of the main stations of the political process, and confidence can be restored to the political process after the popular demonstrations that started in 2019”.

He added, “We were keen to hold early elections in April 2021, but they were postponed until last October. They did not take place in the atmosphere that we were planning for, and the fear of the elections is not a coincidence.”

He pointed out that “the agencies that the Electoral Commission contracted with the designated company did not work in the hands of Iraqi experts, and the Commission did not submit its report to the House of Representatives, and this is an explicit violation by it.”

Al-Amiri added, “All the meetings that took place with the commission, we told them that we are afraid of manipulating the election results electronically, and large countries are also afraid of that.”

And he indicated that “a meeting took place on the seventh of last August in the government palace headed by the prime minister and in the presence of all the leaders of the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs, and in the presence of the representative of the United Nations, and we revealed our fears of electoral fraud during the meeting.”

He stressed that “the Electoral Commission is mandated to deliver the results tape to each candidate before sending a copy to the headquarters of the Electoral Commission in Baghdad.”

Al-Amiri explained that “the report proved that legal violations exist, and that the commission said when announcing the election results that it represented 95% of the polling stations, after which it turned out that it represented only 79%,” noting that “the commission announced the results of 8,000 ballot boxes and then it was found 3,000 funds have not been announced.

He added, “We have submitted an appeal to the Federal Court regarding the election results, in which we mentioned the legal and technical violations and the inspecting company’s 6 reports out of 7 reports.”

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Ihsan Al-Shammari to / NINA /: The Al-Amiri house meeting indicates disagreement .. and Al-Sadr embarrassed the coordinating framework

 |Number of readings: 315

Baghdad / NINA / – Head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, said: “The outcomes of the meeting of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada Al-Sadr, with the coordinating framework in the house of the head of the Al-Fateh Alliance Hadi Al-Amiri, indicate that there is no agreement between the two parties, but rather a reduction in the level of escalation and accusations and an attempt to calm the street and the armed factions. 

Al-Shammari added in a statement to the National Iraqi News Agency ( NINA ): “The set of statements issued by each party shows that no agreement has occurred, and therefore it appears that Mr. Al-Sadr is the biggest winner from this meeting, especially since he left the meeting by not changing his conviction (No Sharqiah). Nor Western), and a national majority government, which is a message that everyone is looking for consensus and sharing the state, not work, and thus Al-Sadr succeeded in embarrassing the coordination framework after this meeting.

He explained: “The issue of consensus is related to the electoral merits, the prime ministership, and the portfolios, and these matters were not agreed upon in the meeting, because Al-Sadr is still looking for a majority within the Council of Ministers, that is, half plus one, in addition to the Prime Minister, and this achieves for him the implementation of the ministerial program. and implementation, but it seems that the coordinating framework does not want al-Sadr to grant these matters, and he is looking for 6 to 7 ministerial seats, and this is what al-Sadr rejects, and so far there is no agreement in this regard.” 

He pointed out: “Al-Sadr wants to make the argument that he is a party that can accommodate everyone, but not on the old approach, but on the basis of the approach he plans as a national majority,” noting: “Al-Sadr wanted from this meeting to attract the largest number of parties from the coordinating framework, Consequently, he made concessions on the issue of meeting with these parties in order to gain part of the parties to the framework.”

The coordinating framework announced the agreement during the meeting with the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, to continue dialogues and discussions, leading to the development of realistic solutions to the blockage in the political scene. 

Meanwhile, the framework forces affirmed that they will continue their legal and public steps with regard to following up on the issue of the election results./ Ended

https://ninanews.com/Website/News/Details?Key=942746

America decides to extend the deadline to exempt Iran from exporting electricity to Iraq

local| 08:17 – 04/12/2021

image

Follow-up – Mawazine News,
according to US news reports, on Saturday, that the administration of President Joe Biden decided to extend Iran’s exemption from sanctions in the process of selling electricity to Iraq.
The Washington Free Beacon reported, according to a non-public notification it obtained, that this waiver was presented to Congress at a time when nuclear talks between the United States and Tehran resumed. Ended 29/A4

https://www.mawazin.net/Details.aspx?jimare=177302

A preliminary agreement to form a united Kurdish alliance for dialogue with Baghdad.. These are its details

  •  Time: 12/04/2021 13:11:32 
  •  Reading: 494 times 
A preliminary agreement to form a united Kurdish alliance for dialogue with Baghdad.. These are its details

{Political: Al Furat News} A member of the Kurdistan Islamic Party and a member of the former Parliamentary Legal Committee, Salim Hamza, revealed today, Saturday, a preliminary agreement to form a united Kurdish alliance for dialogue with Baghdad regarding the formation of the government. 

Hamza said in a statement to {Euphrates News}, that “the Kurdish forces initially agreed to form a single front or alliance headed by the Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.”
And that “the alliance will be with the participation of all Kurdish parties.”
And on the results of the elections, and from a legal point of view, Hamza indicated that “by the completion of the Federal Court’s study and procedures on the issue of ratification of the results and the study of appeals and voting on them, no political party can oppose the election results.”
He pointed out that “after approval, it is not possible to return and submit an appeal because the decision of the Federal Court is binding and final.”
Raghad Daham

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International Monetary Expects A Recovery Of Non-Oil GDP In Iraq

ECONOMICLAST UPDATE 12/04/2021 | 12:32 PM

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Information / translation …
A report by the International Monetary Fund confirmed that the Iraqi economy is recovering from the sharp contraction witnessed last year against the background of high oil prices and with the easing of restrictions related to the Corona virus and the increase in vaccination rates.
And the British newspaper, The National, quoted in a report translated by the agency “Information”, the Monetary Fund as saying that “the real non-oil GDP of the country is expected to recover by 12 percent this year, while the balances of financial and current accounts are expected to improve significantly, after contracting Its officials held an online meeting with the Iraqi authorities regarding recent economic developments and upcoming policy priorities for the country.”
He added that “inflation in Iraq reached 7.2 percent last September and is expected to recede in the coming months, and it is expected that public finance balances and external current accounts will improve significantly in 2021 from a double-digit deficit in 2020, mainly due to higher prices. oil.”
He added, “Iraq invests $3 billion annually to shift from liquids to gas power generation, while high oil revenues represent an important opportunity to address Iraq’s major fundamental weaknesses, and enhance resilience in the face of the future climate and other challenges.”
It is reported that “Iraq, the second largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), depends on oil revenues to cover 90 percent of government spending, including $5 billion as a public sector wage bill every month.” finished/25 z

النقد الدولي يتوقع انتعاش الناتج المحلي الإجمالي غير النفطي في العراق