Calm before the storm… the prime minister’s stock exchange with its highest dealings, and the liquidations of faces at its end, who won?

Reports| 01:17 – 10/24/2021


Baghdad – Mawazine News
While the names of the candidates to head the new government enter and leave the Shiite stock market, Mustafa Al-Kazemi maintains his political calm and works as if he is staying for the next four years. .
There is what can be called the political relaxation that Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi enjoys after holding the elections and announcing the results.
This relaxation is not due to the success of the elections and their results, but rather to what happens when the conflicting Shiite forces differ over the position of prime minister, because there are those who see that the rope of dispute is long and may be longer, while Al-Kazemi’s option is ready and enjoys a preliminary agreement from the majority of the electoral blocs, if we exclude The head of the Islamic Dawa Party, Nuri al-Maliki, who added Al-Kazemi to his hate list. Also, the Al-Fateh bloc will not forgive him a “conspiracy” to exclude him in the legislative elections.
The Al-Fateh bloc believes that there is a “democratic conspiracy” in which President Barham Salih participated in its arrangement, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi and Parliament Speaker Muhammad Al-Halbousi, to exclude it in the elections and lose most of its seats in Parliament and obtain only 17 seats.
The Al-Fateh bloc is working to exclude the trio from presidential positions with all it has, but the consensus in the end will be above its revenge wishes from Saleh, Al-Kazemi and Al-Halbousi.
And names described as independent are leaking out to compete with Al-Kazemi for the position, with the aim of influencing the level of his chance. The name of Faiq Zaidan, head of the Supreme Judicial Council, and the current head of the Federal Court of Cassation was circulated as an independent candidate for prime minister in the event that the Shiite forces did not agree on a specific name.
The last meeting of the Shiite forces in the house of al-Maliki was awaiting the position of the reference in Najaf, when the meeting announced that no negotiations would take place regarding the formation of the next government, before the Electoral Commission considered the complaints and appeals submitted by the Shiite forces, and provided legal evidence on any final result.
But the meeting of Al-Maliki’s house leaked different information about the Shiite names nominated for the position of prime minister, the most important thing in it being that Al-Kazemi’s name was mentioned at the end of the list issued by Al-Maliki and after him Asaad Al-Eidani, then Muhammad Shia Al-Sudani, Adnan Al-Zarfi, Hassan Al-Kaabi, Jaafar Al-Sadr and Nassar Al-Rubaie.
On the other hand, there is a demand from Shiite forces for Al-Kazemi, as a solution that saves the face of the Shiite house, whose walls have been demolished for years, because they see in the blessing of the Najaf authority for renewal for Al-Kazemi a red line that it is difficult for them to cross.
The head of the Wisdom Movement, Ammar al-Hakim, who failed in the elections and did not obtain with the head of the parallel wing of the Dawa Party, Haider al-Abadi, only five seats, preferring Al-Kazemi over any other options, including Al-Maliki.
And the former parliament speaker, Muhammad al-Halbousi, sees Al-Kazemi as a national option, while the head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Massoud Barzani, considers Al-Kazemi a reliable ally, preferable to any other candidate from the Shiite blocs.
The Kurds do not forget that Al-Kazemi restored the path of Baghdad’s relationship with Erbil and reduced the level of tension and disputes over the Kurdistan region’s share of the financial budget, as well as ending the dispute over the export of oil products.
Al-Kazemi is linked with the Kurdish President of the Republic, Barham Salih, with a compatible working relationship in most of the files, which he considers a preferred option for the Kurds.
The most important thing in all of this is the blessing of Al-Sistani’s reference to Al-Kazemi, as it cannot undo what it described before as an experimenter who does not try, in reference to Nuri al-Maliki’s rejection.
The reference also realizes that what Al-Kazemi achieved in restoring Iraq’s relationship with its Arab surroundings could end as soon as Al-Maliki rises again, even if he tries to modify his positions on the Arab countries.
Al-Kazemi, for his part, confirms that he did not participate in the elections to give them integrity, credibility and confidence, and to distance them from any possible political pressure.
As soon as the dispute between the political blocs escalated over the results, he said, “We must reconcile with ourselves and with society, and open a new page in our political and social life.”
And media sources within Al-Kazemi’s team had previously revealed, according to “Al-Arab” newspaper, that they are working and drawing up government plans as they are continuing their work in the new government.
Political researcher Shaho Al-Qara Daghi said that the current Prime Minister Al-Kazemi’s period witnessed relative calm at the internal level, in addition to initiatives to achieve regional rapprochement in the interest of Iraq and keeping it away from conflicts.
Al-Qara Daghi, adviser to the New Iraq Center for Research and Studies, added, in a statement to Al-Arabiya, that the political forces seem to believe that Al-Kazemi may be the best option in the next stage for the continuation of the calm and the good management of relations between Iran and the United States, especially since the election results have caused divisions within the Shiite parties. Which may feel the difficulty of finding an alternative and agreeing on it during the next stage as a result of the conflict of interests and the shock that afflicted the armed factions.
Winners replace losers
Al-Kazemi, for his part, is seeking to renew his mandate because his presence, as he sees it, has been linked to many files, which it is difficult for others to manage, especially with regard to the Saudi-Iranian dialogue.
The Shiite leader expressed his expectation that Al-Sadr, with his majority deputies, would block the appointment of all the names nominated by his opponents in light of the fact that his relative’s chances of winning the position are slim.
The Iraqi writer and blogger, Saleh Al-Hamdani, expresses his belief that agreeing on a second term for Al-Kazemi, which was agreed upon in advance, is easier than agreeing on a new prime minister.
Al-Hamdani said in a statement to “Al-Arab” that the Sadrist bloc’s desire to replace the duality of Mustafa Al-Kazemi – Hamid Al-Ghazi with (Sadr Qahi) may stand in the way of the renewal of Mustafa Al-Kazemi for a second term. Also, the pressure of the Al-Fateh Alliance, if it allied itself with the Sadrists, to form the government, and Nuri al-Maliki’s ambition to return may make the second term difficult for Al-Kazemi, but it is not impossible.
He considered that it is in Iraq’s interest now that the prime minister remains civilian and independent, does not belong to parties, and is not a party to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ conflict with Iranian intelligence (Al-Atlaat).
“In Iraq, everyone can agree in a moment with everyone, so we must prepare for the upcoming surprises, whether with regard to Al-Kazemi or his successor,” he said.
A kind of solution,
but with all that, do the Iraqis see that Al-Kazemi is a kind of solution for the next four years?
Once we reconsider the percentage of the elections boycott by the Iraqis, we get part of the answer, and the activists of the October uprising consider Al-Kazemi a legitimate son of the corrupt class, even if he shows patriotic positions.
Al-Kazemi will not hold accountable the large corruption forces that control the state, even if he is satisfied with corrupt third-class employees. Al-Kazemi will not clash with the militias and approach their weapons. It also presents itself as a mediator between Iran and the countries of the region, rather than rejecting its growing influence in Iraq.
Therefore, the Iraqis continue to view the next government as just a game of exchanging chairs that does not change the reality of the country, nor does it implement the demands of the October uprising.
Nusseibeh Younes, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said that when Al-Kazemi is chosen for a new term, he will face an uphill battle to bring about change. It is likely that the next government will remain unable or unwilling to address the corruption and social and economic grievances that were the cause of the October uprising protests.
Younis, who specializes in Iraqi affairs, called on European countries, as they welcome Al-Kazemi’s second term, to put more pressure on the Iraqi political establishment to prevent uncontrolled weapons and adopt the much-needed political and economic reforms.
She stressed that it is important to increase European support for Iraqi civil society and hold the government in Baghdad accountable for violations against protesters.
And she expressed her expectation that the new government, whether Al-Kazemi stays or changes, will accompany the emergence of a new protest movement in Iraq. Asking Europeans to protect young protesters and empower advocates of change within civil society, otherwise frustration will continue and lead to more instability in Iraq. Ended 29/A43

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s