Political | 09:20 – 26/04/2020
Follow up – Mawazine News
In an article published by the Foreign Policy magazine of a fellow at the American Institute of Foreign Relations, Stephen Cook, he said: “No one can help Iraq anymore” and indicated that Iraq has a new prime minister but he has no chance of success. And he began with the question: “Who knew that Iraq has a new prime minister to raise his hand, not not who was assigned in mid-March but the new prime minister.” Referring to the mandate of President Barham Saleh, Mustafa Al-Kazemi to form the government to succeed the government of Adel Abdul Mahdi who resigned in The end of November.
Muhammad Tawfiq Allawi was assigned to form the government but he did not succeed, then came Adnan Al-Zarfi, who was unable to obtain sufficient support to form the government, which led to the appointment of Al-Kazemi.
Cook believes that the articles published by the American media about Iraq today look like the routine articles that were published about a number of prime ministers in Iraq dating back to the time of the invasion.
Like his predecessors, Al-Kazemi can balance the United States and Iran, and has the ability to drum up support from all different parties. But testimonials like this are followed by reservations about the defects of the Iraqi political system, which makes it difficult for a prime minister-designate to form a government and thus rule. The articles usually contain wishes and hope for the success of the candidate who considers the story here, although most of them and comments usually allude to Iraqi political institutions. The regular observer knows that the problems of Iraq are important, complex and cannot be solved. No one knows the way to solve it, despite multiple attempts over the past years. For this reason, everyone who cared about Iraq in Washington began to call for an exit. This is Donald Trump’s official position. But the United States will sooner or later face the repercussions of its collapse.
It became clear from the experience of the past years that the institutions and their shape are important, as the state can have democratic institutions, but its leaders do not adopt or believe in democratic values. Such a situation represents an ordeal for al-Kazemi. American and Iraqi politicians have witnessed his competence: he was not a member of the Iraqi political parties but he was responsible for national intelligence, and he was said to have supervised the de-politicization process and emphasized professionalism in it. These are positive advantages, but they will not be sufficient to govern Iraq through them. This does not mean that the fate of the Iraqis, who have suffered from long wars, live under a rotting government. The current chaos in Iraq shows that the worst political systems can continue, and without entering into the details of Iraq in the post-invasion phase, politics in it resembles a system of spoils, including corruption and lack of supervision, and everyone is complicit.
This situation does not help Iran benefit from the deficit policy that made Baghdad weak. These problems are so frequent that a person like Muqtada al-Sadr, the leader of the Mahdi Army, was able to rehabilitate his political path as a patriotic man (despite his ties to Iran which are consolidating according to circumstances), and more important than al-Sadr’s return is the protest movement that erupted in October 2019, it has gone out Large segments of the Iraqi people take to the streets not because of the work that Abdul Mahdi is doing, but because the survival of the political system destroys any hope for their prosperous future. The protests demanded a complete change of the political system. In the language of the Arab Spring before the decade “We want to overthrow the regime,” change does not mean the departure of its personalities, but its radical elimination. Although the Arab Spring seemed like a false dawn, it did not eliminate the need to change the Iraqi political and social system before the Iraqis had any opportunity to achieve their goals.
Cook says that the United States has called on Iraqi leaders for many years to do better for the benefit of their people, but that the system it has encouraged has stimulated politicians in Baghdad to serve their narrow interests at the expense of others. The sectarian nature of the party system weakens the country and puts pressure on it. Fighting resources and distributing them to the preferred areas is what defines politics, but in Iraq, partisan disputes and disputes based on them appear in the government. One can sit in front of five Iraqi officials, and each of them has different loyalties and agendas that he seeks to achieve.
And the failure is so clear and surprising that no one in America calls for more cooperation with the players in the Iraqi political system than making the absurd effort to get them to make the right decisions. The Trump administration has come to the conclusion that engaging in the Iraqi political system is a waste of energy.
The American position on assigning a Prime Minister to Iraq has become focused on the minimum, which is to be an Iraqi “patriot” rather than a subsidiary of Iran. Al-Kazemi passed the exam, and this does not change the course of the American policy that leaves it up to the Iraqis to find the appropriate path for them. This situation might upset some of them, especially the Sunnis who want to ally with America but are forced to accept their reality.
Cook believes that this US policy may be wise, as the absence of interest other than maintaining a task force to combat the Islamic State may force Iraqi politicians to change their habits, or they will face the wrath of the Iraqi people demanding the end of the regime. If Iraq’s leaders fail to solve the country’s accumulated problems, it will be the blame for Iran. And the problems are increasing due to the spread of the Corona virus, which affected the world market in addition to the collapse of oil prices as a result of the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. This is a terrible situation for Iraq, but no one in the United States is willing to invest time and resources in Iraq, especially at this time of the spread of Covid-19 in the United States and the Congress allocating trillions of dollars to protect the economy. Al-Kazemi may have the ability as he portrayed, but he will not protect Iraq. The political system is moldy, the Americans are preoccupied with their problems, and Iran is like Iraq.
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