The economic cost of the Iraqi-American clash … Nabil El-Marsoumi


2020-01-06

Books: Dr. Nabil Al-Marsoumi

1. There is a high possibility that the United States will freeze Iraqi oil revenues that pass through the US Federal Bank to Iraq. As well as the possibility of freezing Iraq’s investments in US treasury bonds, which amount to $ 32.7 billion, and freezing Iraq’s other assets in American banks and financial institutions.

2. The collapse of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate due to the scarcity of foreign currencies and the suspension of the currency auction for the Iraqi Central Bank, which depends on the influx of oil dollars, which will lead to monetary instability and to price turmoil and its rise.

3. A significant decline in the Iraqi cash reserves in the Central Bank of Iraq, which depend on the flow of oil money and thus eroded ability to defend the Iraqi dinar exchange rate

4. The investment environment in Iraq will deteriorate greatly, Iraq will become a repellent for investment, and many international companies will refrain from investing in Iraq because of the security, political and economic instability that prevails in the country.

5. The 2020 budget will suffer from a real crisis due to the significant decline in public revenues on the one hand and the stop of international and American institutions from lending to Iraq, which is one of the important sources of financing the Iraqi budget deficit.

6. A significant decline in the production and export capacity of crude oil due to the expected withdrawal of US and foreign companies in general operating in the fields of licensing contracts as well as the suspension of projects aimed at developing the gas industry and infrastructure for the Iraqi oil sector

7. A sharp decrease in the volume of Iraqi foreign trade for each of the exports and imports funded mainly from oil revenues, which will lead to a huge rise in the levels of prices for goods and services and to a decline in the country’s revenues from ports and border ports.

8. The state’s inability to provide salaries for employees, retirees, and those covered by the social protection network that depends 87% on oil revenues, and that it is hoped that these salaries will increase by 14 trillion dinars in the 2020 budget to implement governmental and parliamentary reform packages

9. The United States is expected to abolish the exception granted to Iraq by importing gas and electricity from Iran, which will negatively affect the supply of electricity to citizens.

10. The significant losses that the Iraqi banking sector will be exposed to due to possible US sanctions.

11. Iraq will have to pay several billion dollars to the United States in exchange for its evacuation of its military bases in Iraq.

12. The decline in performance in the Iraqi economy, especially in the sectors of agriculture, industry, construction, and transportation, which will exacerbate the problems of poverty and unemployment in Iraq.

13 The great damage that will be caused to the Iranian economy, which depends a lot on Iraq, as Iran exports to Iraq $ 12 billion worth of goods annually that contribute greatly to reducing the severity of US sanctions on it, as well as stopping the flow of Iranian oil through Iraq and to the decline in the number of Iraqi tourists to Iran, which limits the flow Foreign currencies to Iran, as well as the suspension of oil derivatives imported by Syria from Iran through Iraq, as well as the endeavors aimed at linking rail networks between Iraq and Iran as part of a broader plan to enable Iran to transport its goods to Syria and its Mediterranean ports.

الكلفة الاقتصادية للصّدام العراقي – الأمريكي.. نبيل المرسومي

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