Iraq, Tuesday 13 November 2018
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday predicted a recovery in Iraq’s growth in 2018 and 2019, indicating that the current temporary rise in oil prices provides an opportunity for producing countries to rebuild their reserves. “The growth in oil countries in the region outside the Gulf, namely Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Libya, is expected to reach 0.3 percent in 2018, after reaching 3 percent the previous year, before rising to 0.9 percent,” the IMF said in a report. In 2019 ‘.
Noting that this “reflects significantly the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran, which will likely reduce the production of Iran and exports in the next two years.” Iraq is ready to increase oil exports if OPEC agrees, and the IMF expects ‘the recovery of growth in Iraq in 2018 and 2019, which is mainly due to the continuation of reconstruction efforts’.
The IMF noted that “all these oil countries face similar financial challenges in the medium term. Given the high reliance on oil revenues, the average price achieved for the fiscal equivalent of 2020-2023 is expected to exceed the current oil price levels except in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE United Arab Emirates, fiscal balances are still vulnerable to oil price movements. ‘
“The current temporary rise in oil prices provides an opportunity for countries to rebuild their reserves and possible threats to global prospects, including increased trade tensions, could put additional pressure on oil prices,” the IMF said. Countries to strengthen their fiscal frameworks to create fiscal space in situations where they will need support through fiscal policy. ‘