08-05-2018 02:17 PM
The Euphrates –
The World Bank published its forecasts and estimates for the Iraqi economy during 2018, where positive indicators overshadowed the scene despite warnings of the fragility of the situation due to the dangers of the Iraqi situation.
Iraq has a population of 38.5 and a gross domestic product of 197.7 billion dollars, poverty rate according to the poverty line set at $ 3.2 per day is 17.9%, while the rate of $ 5.5 per day income to 57.3 dollars, but the national poverty line was set at 22.5%. While the average age in Iraq is 69.6.
The report predicts an acceleration in the growth of the Iraqi economy by improving the security situation as it recorded 4.4% in the non-oil sector in 2017, despite the slow reconstruction activities due to the repercussions of the war and low oil prices, amid hopes to reform the structure of the economy and address the problem of displacement where 10% Of Iraqis suffer from displacement.
He estimated Iraq’s reconstruction needs at $ 88 billion. However, the positive indicators showed the situation slightly, according to the report. Inflation recorded a low rate of 0.1% in 2017 and total budget deficit decreased to 2.2% last year.
The improvement in financial output helped stabilize public debt in 2017 following an increase in borrowing and debt guarantees. The debt ratio, for example, stabilized in 2016, for example, at 64 percent. Foreign exchange reserves began to rise in 2017 to cope with external shocks.
The labor market statistics indicate a further deterioration in the poverty situation, where the rate of participation of youth between 15-24 years has decreased significantly and the unemployment rate has doubled in the provinces affected by violence related to displacement and displacement, where 21% compared to the rest of the provinces 11%.
The World Bank expects Iraq’s growth prospects to improve due to a favorable security environment and gradual recovery of reconstruction investment amid forecasts of GDP growth despite an OPEC cut-off agreement that obligates Iraq to commit.
Threats to growth in Iraq include the possibility of heightened political tensions and the possibility of terrorist attacks that could compromise future prospects over the medium term. In the long term, there are risks looming like oil price volatility, failure to improve the security environment, The reform of public finances, the containment of current expenditures, the lack of priority for investment in reconstruction, and the public debt remains vulnerable to the shock of a decline in oil prices or a decline in the real exchange rate of the dinar.