BAGHDAD – The closer the Iraqi parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 12, the greater the speculation about who will take over as prime minister for four years to come.
Within the closed chambers, movement continues to support the chances of this candidate or that of the importance of the first government will lead Iraq in the post-Islamic state of terrorism and the stage of combating financial and administrative corruption.
It seems that the current Prime Minister Haider Abadi is the favorite to head the executive for a second term for his success in leading Iraq to regain one-third of its territory, which was controlled by the extremist organization since the summer of 2014.
But Abadi will face fierce competition from his allies within the Shi’ite majority who has been prime minister since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 1979-2003.
Although Abadi and Nuri al-Maliki, his predecessor in the presidency of the government (2006-2014), belong to the Islamic Dawa Party, they are running on two separate lists after the party failed to put them on top of the list as they sought to fill the post.
He considered the leader of the Dawa Party Jassim Mohammed Jaafar (Turkmani) that “Abadi is the most likely to fill the position for a second term through the list of victory that he heads.”
In the name of the list, Abadi tries to remind voters that he led the country to victory over the organization of the Islamic state through three-year military campaigns supported by the US-led coalition.
Jafar, the most prominent candidates in the list of the coalition victory, “inevitably priority for the slaves and the atmosphere of the general, taking a second term for many reasons, including his performance and achievements, calmness and acceptability that he enjoys internally and externally.”
But did not hide his concern about the possibility of repercussions because of the withdrawal of blocks from the coalition victory after a short time of accession.
The Fatah alliance joined the Abadi coalition and withdrew after only one day in January.
The Fatah alliance includes 18 political wings of the Popular Popular Forces (pro-government Shiite forces), most notably the Badr Organization led by Hadi al-Amiri and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais al-Khazali, one of the most loyal factions of Iran.
The majority, backed by Tehran, have contributed to defeating the organization of the Islamic state but face charges of widespread abuses against Sunnis and Kurds in the north and west of the country, while the leaders deny any systematic violations.
The leader of the Islamic Dawa Party believes that there are three scenarios for the next government in Iraq.
Jaafar explained that the first scenario is the formation of a consensual government headed by Abadi and the second is the formation of a majority political government headed by Maliki, the last scenario is the arrival of a Shiite figure to power close to Saudi Arabia and the United States.
There are other names have the chances of varying degrees to reach the presidency of the Iraqi government, although it depends on the results of the elections, as experts see in the Iraqi issue.
“The traditional leaders like Maliki, will not run for the upcoming elections,” said political expert Ahmed al-Abyad, adding that “Maliki will seek to push candidates from his forehead to fill the post (prime minister).”
He favored the nomination of “former deputy speaker of the parliament Qusay al-Suhail or the current Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Mohammed Shiaa al-Sudani, as the coalition of the crowd (Fath) push Interior Minister Qassim al-Araji (belonging to the Badr bloc) as a rival candidate for slaves.”
The Iraqi prime minister has traditionally enjoyed the blessing of Iran, close to the Shiite rulers of Baghdad, as well as the blessing of the United States that toppled Saddam’s regime and occupied Iraq until late 2011.
White said that “the American influence will be the largest this time in the Iraqi elections and the nomination of the Prime Minister”
He added that “there is a significant decline in the role of Iran, especially as it was counting on the Shiite National Alliance as a dominant bloc, but the latter is no longer so, especially that the alliance of Sawsan, which is supported by the Sadrists (led by the strong cleric Moqtada al-Sadr) and the alliance Abadi far away from the Iranian mood and therefore did not Tehran is unique in its decision. “
Sunnis and Kurds are out of office
As has been the case for years, neither the Sunnis nor the Kurds will compete for the post of prime minister, but the two components look forward to holding the post as a moderate figure and fulfilling their demands.
“We are not rivals to our Shiite brothers for prime minister,” said Dhafer al-Ani, a deputy of the Iraqi Forces Alliance (the largest Sunni bloc with 53 seats out of 328).
“What matters to us is that the post is moderate and has a national vision and strengthens and solidifies the achievements that took place during this period and enables state institutions to play their role more widely.”
He ruled out focusing on one person ahead of the elections and said that “there are many candidates fit for prime minister, but it depends on the results of the elections and the votes they get, and this translates into understandings to be received later.”
“All that is issued by names is speculation, and no one can be certain until after the election results,” said MP Mohsen al-Saadoun, head of the Iraqi parliament’s legal committee.
“After many promises made during the past period, including the elimination of corruption, some have lost their chances,” he added.
“We have problems in the region that have not been resolved and our support for any bloc or candidate depends on its ability to implement the constitution and federal system in Iraq without selectivity and will not support any figure is unclear.”
Relations between Baghdad and Erbil are one of the most thorny issues facing the next Iraqi prime minister, who has deteriorated sharply since the September referendum in a referendum that Baghdad called unconstitutional and which the federal government called “punitive measures.”