11/1/2018 12:00 am
Patrick Cockburn / translation / Anis al – Saffar
spent the greatest part of last year and I prepared reports Hsarin, the siege of the city of Mosul in Iraq and the siege of the city of Raqqa in Syria that ended Alhsaran finally decisive defeat for the organization «Daesh». This was the most significant and important event in the Middle East in 2017, although many people have since begun to forget the extent of the danger they were “calling” and succeeding at the height of the organization’s power, even as it descended towards its final fall.
Not long ago, “This organization impose their will on vast areas of western Iraq and eastern Syria equivalent in terms of capacity of Britain.
Da’ash, along with other organized terrorist groups, have been leading news bulletins every few months with atrocities ranging from Manchester to Kabul and from Berlin to the African Sahara.
This organization still retains the ability to kill civilians (it is enough to look at the events of Sinai and Afghanistan in the last few weeks), but it no longer has the power of the centrally organized state, the force that then made it dangerous and violent.
This defeat is a sign that the time may have come to an end to the war cycle that has been operating in Iraq since 2003 and in Syria since 2011.
On the battlefield of Iraq and Syria, The lines of many conflicts have been intertwined. Until the end of these overlapping crises, chaos and confusion have been created. However, the situation has created victors and defeated people who have taken the lead today, and they will redraw the image of the region and define its features for decades to come.
The exaggerated warnings about the possibility of a “resurgence” of al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda in the region, or their disintegration and turning them into a new strike that is no less lethal and dangerous, ignore the depth of the changes that have taken place over the past few years.
The extremists have lost their support for their regions, and their enemies today are much stronger than they were, and from this point of view, the resurgence of a “state of haste” and its return becomes a real impossibility.
Despite this, he did not follow the defeat of the “stronghold” in the strongholds of the stronghold manifestations of joy expected, and part of the reason is that people have not yet realized that the snake really died and still have a fear that they do not blame him to be able to “kill” the killing of more people in the Scratches.
During the months of October and November I was in Baghdad, which now has a lower limit than the violence in
Compare what is now happening to about 3,000 people who lost their lives monthly in the capital alone during the peak of sectarian violence between 2006 and 2007 by bombings or
At the time, young Iraqis were turning to tattooing their bodies as a sign of being identified in the event of being killed and maimed to limits beyond recognition.
Eighteen months ago, a bomb hidden in a truck in the Karrada district killed at least 323 people, so one can understand the caution of the people of Baghdad to rush to victory.
Still, there are good hopes that the period of wars and emergencies that have endured Iraq for the past 40 years has come to an end. Today there are no longer internal insurgent movements fueled by foreign countries.
Outside the borders of Iraq, the arch of the Middle East, extending north between Iran and the Mediterranean, appears to have had influence across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and has begun to tend to stability.
The new Middle East region of Qalqilya is far away in the south of the Arabian Peninsula, where the situation is rapidly escalating in 2017. The
war in Yemen, which ended in a dead end, is today the most bloody and brutal one in the region, where eight million Yemenis The danger of starvation due to the siege imposed by
There are also more than a million cases of possible cholera, the most widespread disease in recent history.
The destabilization of the Arabian Peninsula stems mostly from the pre-emptive policies, both external and internal, of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, those policies that made Saudi Arabia, once known as the most conservative and conservative, playing card in the region that is difficult to predict.
Some of his steps may seem superficial and hasty, but others were more serious.
There is no doubt that Mohammed bin Salman felt the winds of change were blowing in his favor when President Trump visited Saudi Arabia last May, but only two things went as
Trump delighted the hearts of his Saudi hosts by blaming all Middle East problems for Iran, but US policy of antagonizing Iran remained within rhetoric
The Saudi-imposed blockade of Qatar was the most important initiative the kingdom had taken in the Gulf, but it did not do much for it or for the UAE, except that the move prompted Qatar to come closer to Turkey and Iran.
On the Saudi coast overlooking the Red Sea, Sudan is considering withdrawing its force from Yemen, which is a significant proportion of the size of the ground forces of the
Saudi alliance .
The United States and Western European countries deal with Saudi Arabia as a dominant regional power, and their motives are linked to interests as they clearly desire to continue selling arms to the kingdom and its other Gulf allies.
But events in the Arabian Peninsula over the past year have been a living proof of a general fact about oil states: money can gain them power and influence to a certain extent, but their operational capabilities remain much lower than they think.
This applies to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and even Iraq’s Kurdistan, to some extent betrayed by its wisdom and made it aspire to become another new Emirate of the rich oil emirates.
Recent history shows what can be taken as a general rule for these countries: the possession of huge financial revenues derived from the sale of oil and gas and other natural resources such as minerals produces only arrogance and unbridled ambition leading to self-destruction.
Common anecdotes about Idris , the king of Libya , said that when he told him in the sixties that the oil companies found oil in his country , said: «How I wished you found any water, because the water pushes people to work while oil pushes people to indulge in dreams.»
May look like this The phrase is too simple to be naïve, but everything that has happened in the Middle East and North Africa over half a century has confirmed its realism.
Oil money can not do more than provide expensive modern weapons, but it can not win a war, and that is what we saw in
(Money) is able to buy allies who offer only the minimum of what is required of them, and as soon as the money runs out until their loyalty ends.
The good news for us in 2018 is that the two wars in Iraq and Syria may have already ended, and this is not only good for the Iraqis, the Syrians and their neighbors, but what happened in the region will soon have repercussions and repercussions throughout the land, Iraq in 2003 al-Qaeda into an all-out movement that eventually resulted in that group of barbaric gunmen dressed in the so-called devil’s name.
Whatever the events of the world in 2017, the destruction of a “happy state” alone is enough to make it a happy year.
For the magazine “Counter Panch” American