Brett McGurk Retweeted Haider Al-Abadi
Brett McGurk added,
January 10, 2017
A statement of the Ministry for Iraq ‘s oil minister, Ali Jabar Luaibi: “The exports rising in an unprecedented way from the south will not affect Iraq ‘s decision to cut production in January to implement the agreement of OPEC.”
He welcomed Allaibi to “improved oil prices , ” caused by the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
He said Iraq ‘s second – largest producer in OPEC, it would reduce production by 200 thousand barrels per day to 4.351 million barrels per day.
Traders said, if Iraq increased Basra crude supplies in January to Asia after the price reduction to the lowest level in three months, which means that it will cut exports from the north of commitment to OPEC’s agreement.
The Oil Ministry said, in a separate statement, said that Allaibi discussed with Turkey to resume exports via pipeline starts from Kirkuk after the expulsion of the organization of the Islamic State of Nineveh province in northern Iraq, but the ministry did not say whether there were plans for it in the pipeline.
He stopped the pipeline amounting to a capacity of 600 thousand barrels per day from work in March / March 2014 after being attacked and forced Baghdad to use a path runs through areas controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government in the semi-autonomous northern Iraq territory.
Oil exports from the Kurdistan region disputed with Baghdad that says, it ‘s the only owner the right to take over the oil sales across the country.
The Kurds established pipeline to Turkey and began exporting oil via Turkey without Baghdad’s approval in 2013.
He said Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, recently, said that the Kurdistan region exported larger quantities of oil allocated to it from the stake.
And it reached Iraq’s exports of crude to its highest level ever at 4.051 million barrels per day in November with the approaching record levels of production at 4.8 million barrels per day.
It was Iraq – which earns most of its income from oil sales – had initially refused to cut production, stressing that it needs this revenue to finance its war against al “state, which took over a third of the country’s territory in 2014, but it then agreed to a reference level of less production in OPEC framework agreement, which was estimated production at 4.561 million barrels per day.
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The announcement by the Iraqi military that its forces have reached the Tigris River for the first time in the battle for Mosul marks a significant moment in the 12-week campaign to recapture so-called Islamic State’s (IS) last major stronghold in the country.
Lieutenant General Abdal-Amir al-Lami, the Iraqi deputy chief of staff for operations, confirmed on 8 January that the Iraqi security forces (ISF) had seized the eastern end of one of the bridges linking the two sides of the city.
A solid foothold seems to have been made in the riverside Beladiyat area, which is the site of many of Mosul’s newer municipality offices and the Salam Hospital, the scene of a daring earlier attempt by Iraqi forces to punch a corridor through to the river.
North of Beladiyat, the 2nd Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) brigade experienced a simultaneous breakthrough towards the river in the Muthana neighbourhood and the ancient ruins of Nineveh.
Gains are also being made in north-east Mosul, as the 1st and 3rd ISOF brigades attempt the recapture of the Kindi military base and adjacent upper income neighbourhoods.
Broad-based advances suggest that IS resistance is “showing signs of collapse” in east Mosul, as suggested by Brett McGurk, the senior US official in the counter-IS coalition, in a tweet on 8 January.
One causal factor was clearly the concentration of all available ISF forces in east Mosul, achieved by closing down ancillary assaults north and south-west of the city.
During a two-week hiatus the 2nd Emergency Response Brigade and 5th Federal Police division troops were shifted from areas south-west of Mosul to new positions east of the Tigris.
These forces re-energised the ISF thrust towards Beladiyat and the bridges inside the city when the offensive was restarted on 29 December.
Another accelerant was the coalition’s role in reconfiguring the Iraqi battle plan, fostering greater co-ordination between Iraqi headquarters and providing more powerful artillery and air strikes.
The latter boost in firepower required US howitzers to be deployed at the eastern edges of Mosul city.
Over 400 coalition special forces were inserted into the urban battle as advisers and strike co-ordinators, often well within the range of IS attacks.
Steady advances in east Mosul will provide a welcome bright spot as the gruelling battle for the city enters its 12th week.
Iraqi forces are now present in 35 of east Mosul’s 47 neighbourhoods, including the largest and most densely populated parts of the east side.
Hard fighting may still be ahead for Mosul University and the Kindi army base, both of which are in east Mosul.
None of the 29 large and heavily populated west Mosul neighbourhoods have been liberated.
Unless an unexpectedly rapid collapse of IS unfolds, the western side of the city will need to be assaulted in a separate military operation launched after some weeks of reset and planning for the ISF.
This suggests that east Mosul may be cleared in January 2017 or early February, whilst the clearance of west Mosul may stretch well into the second quarter of 2017.
The sequential clearing of different quarters of Mosul city may succeed in limiting the time that civilians are exposed to intense combat in individual neighbourhoods.
Thus far the battle has seen far less damage done to Mosul’s infrastructure than previous attritional struggles like Ramadi in Iraq or Kobane in Syria, though the daily damage to neighbourhoods has intensified since the offensive restarted.
The coalition has specifically sought to minimise the cost and time required to rebuild bridges, selectively destroying easy-to-replace spars and off-ramps to deny the bridges to IS but to leave them quickly repairable after the battle.
The number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from Mosul city itself was estimated by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs at 42,000 in early December, around 4-6% of Mosul’s remaining population and a far lower number than many pre-battle projections.
The flow of IDPs from the city has increased since 29 December according to OCHA, including 15,942 in the eight days after the offensive restarted. However, OCHA also announced that security in liberated areas has also allowed 14,000IDPs to return to Mosul city.
Away from most media coverage, the liberated zones of east Mosul city are witnessing the gradual return of policing, running water and diesel-run neighbourhood electrical generation networks.
Most important, the cross-sectarian and multi-ethnic ISF in Mosul city have broadly been accepted by local Sunni Arab residents, who seem grateful for their largely humane treatment of the population and their sacrifices in coming to the distant northern Sunni city of Mosul to liberate it from IS.
The most likely IS response to the loss of east Mosul will be efforts to intensify anti-civilian bombings in Baghdad, where seven bombings in the first eight days of 2017 have killed 87 people and wounded as many as 231.
The Iraqi government and coalition are currently building up Baghdad’s perimeter defences, installing sensors on tethered blimps and launching disruptive security operations in the rural outskirts of the city to break up bombing cells.
Dr Michael Knights is the Lafer Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He has worked in all of Iraq’s provinces, and spent time embedded with the Iraqi security forces. His recent report on post-battle stabilisation of Mosul is available via the Washington Institute website. Follow him on Twitter at @mikeknightsiraq
The said a security source in Nineveh, on Monday, that the elements of the organization “Daesh” criminal surrendered to the security forces on the left coast of the connector.
The source said in an interview, “The five members of the organization” Daesh “criminal sexual Arabs Anevsm surrendered to security forces in the district of municipalities actually left coast to the city of Mosul after its liberation day.”
The source added, “The terrorists were taken to one of the headquarters of security forces for the purpose of conducting investigations with them and use the information in their possession.”
This blog was set up to communicate what's happening in Mosul to the rest of the world, minute by minute by an independent historian inside Mosul.
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